What is on the page
- Opening balance
- Actual bank balance (all business accounts) on the first day. The whole forecast carries forward from this number, so take it from the statement, not from memory.
- Cash in
- Money that will arrive, in the month it arrives: invoices by their expected payment date (not invoice date), card sales net of fees, loan proceeds, owner money put in. Sales tax collected is cash in and cash out; include both or neither.
- Cash out
- Money that will leave, when it leaves: supplier bills by due date, payroll on pay dates, rent on the 1st, quarterly estimated taxes in their months, annual insurance in its month, loan payments including principal, equipment purchases in full, owner draws.
- Closing balance
- Opening plus in minus out, carried to the next month's opening. The row to watch: any month where it drops below your minimum is a month to plan for now.
- Minimum balance
- The cushion you refuse to go below: a month of fixed costs is a common rule. The forecast shows the months that breach it.
- Credit line available
- On the 13-week sheet: undrawn credit you could use to cover a dip. Closing balance plus available credit is your real liquidity.
- Expected vs actual
- On the personal sheet: plan at the start of the month, fill actuals as they happen, tick when done. The difference is the lesson for next month.
Why a profitable business runs out of cash
Timing. The landscaper in the 12-month sample makes a good profit over the year but buys a truck in March, pays staff from April and collects most of the money from May. A P&L spreads the truck over five years and shows a healthy spring; the cash flow shows the balance falling toward zero in March and April and explains why the loan is drawn that month. The same thing happens in miniature every month to businesses that pay suppliers in 14 days and get paid in 45. The forecast makes the gap visible early enough to act: chase receivables, negotiate supplier terms, delay a purchase, arrange a credit line before you need it (banks lend to businesses that can show a forecast, not to businesses already overdrawn).
How to build the 12-month forecast
- Enter the opening bank balance from the statement.
- Cash in: for each month, the invoices you expect to collect, based on when customers actually pay (last year's billing tracker tells you the lag). Add loans and owner contributions in the months they arrive.
- Cash out: fixed costs in their months; variable costs as a percentage of the sales they support, paid when the supplier is paid; payroll on pay dates; taxes, insurance and loan payments in their actual months; equipment in full when bought; owner draws.
- Read the closing balance row. Mark any month below your minimum.
- Fix the plan: move a purchase, shorten payment terms, line up credit, reduce draws in the lean months. Re-run.
- Each month, replace the forecast column with actuals and re-forecast the rest. The forecast gets more accurate every month you do this.
The 13-week version and when to switch to it
When cash is tight, months are too coarse: rent on the 1st and payroll on the 15th can both clear before the big invoice is paid on the 20th. The 13-week sheet puts receipts and payments in the week they happen, with pay dates, rent dates and loan dates on their actual weeks. It is the standard tool in business turnarounds and the document a bank asks for when you request a working-capital line. Update it every Monday: drop the week just finished, add a new week 13, replace expected with actual. If the closing balance plus undrawn credit goes negative in any week, that's the week you've to solve, in order of priority: accelerate receipts, delay discretionary payments, draw credit, defer owner draw.
Personal cash flow vs a budget
A budget says how much to spend on each category in a month; a cash flow says whether the money will be there on the day each bill is due. Households that are paid twice a month and have most bills due in the first week feel broke on the 3rd and flush on the 25th; the personal sheet, with bills in due-date order and income by pay date, shows which bills to move (most billers will change a due date on request) and how much buffer actually keeps the account out of overdraft. The expected-minus-buffer line at the bottom is the number to protect.
Editing the Excel versions
In Excel, every total, net flow and closing balance is a formula that carries forward; enter the opening balance and the cash lines and the rest fills in. Rename categories to your own; insert rows inside a section and the totals follow. For a conditional alert, format the closing balance row to turn red when below the minimum (Home → Conditional Formatting → Less Than → the minimum cell). Pair with the P&L for profit and the break-even worksheet for the sales level that keeps the closing balance climbing.
Questions
What is the difference between a cash flow forecast and a profit and loss statement?
The P&L records revenue when earned and expenses when incurred, spreads asset purchases over years and ignores loan principal and owner draws. The cash flow records money when it actually moves, in full. A business needs both: the P&L to know if it's profitable, the cash flow to know if it will survive to enjoy the profit.
How far ahead should I forecast?
Twelve months at a monthly level for planning and lenders, plus a 13-week weekly forecast whenever cash is tight or a big change is coming. Beyond a year the numbers are guesses; beyond thirteen weeks the week-level detail is not worth the effort.
How do I forecast sales receipts I am not sure about?
Start with last year's collections by month, adjust for known changes (new clients, lost clients, price changes), and be conservative: forecast receipts in the month you expect the cash, not the month you expect the sale. If in doubt, run a low case too, and plan for that one.
Should owner draws be in the cash flow?
Yes. They aren't an expense on the P&L for a sole proprietor, but they're cash leaving the business, often the largest single outflow in a small firm. Leaving them out is the most common reason a forecast looks fine and the account does not.
What minimum cash balance should a small business keep?
A common rule is one month of fixed costs (rent, payroll, loan payments, insurance), more for seasonal businesses heading into the slow season. The forecast shows how many months you dip below whatever figure you choose, which is the practical answer.
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